Do natural rubber price bubbles occur? C., Liu L., Tao R., Lobonţ O. (2019): Do natural rubber price bubbles occur? Agric. Econ. – Czech, 65: 67-73.
download PDF

In this paper, we employ the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in order to identify the existence of multiple bubbles in natural rubber. This approach is practical for the using of time series and identifies the beginning and end points of multiple bubbles. The results reveal that there are five bubbles, where exist the divergences between natural rubber prices and their basic values on account of market fundamentals. The five bubbles are related to imbalance between supply and demand, inefficiencies of smallholders market, oil prices, exchange rate and climatic changes through analyses. Thus, the corresponding authorities are supposed to identify bubbles and consider their evolutions, which is beneficial to the stability of natural rubber price.

Arunwarakorn Suratwadee, Suthiwartnarueput Kamonchanok, Pornchaiwiseskul Pongsa (2017): Forecasting equilibrium quantity and price on the world natural rubber market. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, , -
Ahrends Antje, Hollingsworth Peter M., Ziegler Alan D., Fox Jefferson M., Chen Huafang, Su Yufang, Xu Jianchu (2015): Current trends of rubber plantation expansion may threaten biodiversity and livelihoods. Global Environmental Change, 34, 48-58
Budiman A.F.S., Fortucci P. (2003): Consultation on agricultural commodity price problems. Available at docrep/006/y4344e/y4344e0d.htm (accessed Feb 5, 2018).
Chang Chia-Lin, Khamkaew Thanchanok, McAleer Michael, Tansuchat Roengchai (2011): Modelling conditional correlations in the volatility of Asian rubber spot and futures returns. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 81, 1482-1490
Clermont-Dauphin Cathy, Suvannang Nopmanee, Hammecker Claude, Cheylan Vincent, Pongwichian Pirach, Do Frederic C. (2013): Unexpected absence of control of rubber tree growth by soil water shortage in dry subhumid climate. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33, 531-538
Evans G.M. (1991): Pitfalls in testing for explosive bubbles in asset prices. American Economic Review, 81: 922–930.
Fu X. (2009): The influence of international finance crisis on the natural rubber market. International Economics and Trade Research, 25: 59–64.
Goh Han Hwa, Tan Kim Leng, Khor Chia Ying, Ng Sew Lai (2016): Volatility and Market Risk of Rubber Price in Malaysia: Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 14, 323-344
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2018): International Monetary Fund. Available at (accessed Feb 14, 2019).
Jawjit Warit, Kroeze Carolien, Rattanapan Suwat (2010): Greenhouse gas emissions from rubber industry in Thailand. Journal of Cleaner Production, 18, 403-411
Jun D., Ahn C., Kim G. (2016): Analysis of the global financial crisis using statistical moments. Finance Research Letters, 21: 1–6.
Khin A.A., Zainalabidin M., Mad Nasir S., Chong E.C.F., Fatimah Mohamed A. (2011): Estimation methodology of short-term natural rubber price forecasting models. Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5: 460–474.
Lim J.Y. (2002): An evaluation of alternative forecasting models for natural rubber prices. Available at (accessed Feb 5, 2018).
Njavallil C.J., Thoomkuzhy J.J., John M.E. (2016): An empirical study on the relationship between crude oil price and natural rubber price. Splint International Journal of Professionals, 3: 112–115.
Office of the Rubber Replanting Aid Fund (ORRAF) (2018): Office of the Rubber Replanting Aid Fund. Available at (accessed Feb 14, 2019).
Phillips P.C.B., Shi S.P., Yu J. (2013): Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500. International Economic Review, 56: 1043–1078.
Phillips P.C.B., Shi S., Yu J. (2014): Specification sensitivity in right-tailed unit root testing for explosive behavior. Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 76: 315–333.
Romprasert S. (2011): Market efficiency and forecasting of rubber futures. Journal of Research in International Business Management, 7: 215–224.
Sharib Shabinah, Halog Anthony (2017): Enhancing value chains by applying industrial symbiosis concept to the Rubber City in Kedah, Malaysia. Journal of Cleaner Production, 141, 1095-1108
Simien A., Penot E. (2011): Current Evolution of Smallholder Rubber-Based Farming Systems in Southern Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Forestry, 30, 247-260
The 11th National Five-Year Program (11th NFYP) (2006): The 11th National Five-Year Program. Available at (accessed Feb 14, 2019).
Yi Zhuang-Fang, Cannon Charles H., Chen Jin, Ye Cheng-Xi, Swetnam Ruth D. (2014): Developing indicators of economic value and biodiversity loss for rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna, southwest China: A case study from Menglun township. Ecological Indicators, 36, 788-797
Zhang Yue-Jun, Yao Ting (2016): Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?. Economic Modelling, 55, 226-240
download PDF

© 2022 Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences | Prohlášení o přístupnosti