Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change
Michael Warren Shawhttps://doi.org/10.17221/2831-PPSCitation:Shaw M.W. (2009): Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change. Plant Protect. Sci., 45: S3-S10.
Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to “back-forecast” observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.
climate change; population dynamics; plant disease forecasting; modelling; mutation